Why are you supporting Justin Trudeau

Canada voted : Justin Trudeau gets a second chance

Governing is becoming more difficult for Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. In the election on Monday, his Liberal Party lost an absolute majority in the federal parliament, but as the party with the most seats it can form the government. However, his minority government will have to rely on support from other parties.

Trudeau beamed when he entered the hall of a hotel in his constituency of Montreal-Papineau, where he had waited for the results and was now due to celebrate with his supporters. But the cheers of the liberals couldn't hide the fact that it was more relief than boundless satisfaction. After five weeks of a bitter, sometimes ugly election campaign, Trudeau could breathe a sigh of relief. He got a second chance, which it didn't look like a few weeks ago. His party emerged weakened from the election, but with 157 seats it is still more clearly ahead of the Conservatives (121 seats) than most polls had predicted.

"The Canadians have given us a clear mandate," Trudeau shouted to members of the Liberal Party. He will try to win the trust of all Canadians. He named the fight against climate change, the efforts for a stricter gun law and the reconciliation with the indigenous peoples of the country as important tasks of his government.

But the mandate is not that clear. The Liberals are not only weakened by the loss of 30 seats. According to the Tuesday morning count, Andrew Scheer's Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals with 33.1 percent with 34.4 percent of the vote. Only Canada's majority voting system helped the Liberals win the most constituencies, and therefore the most seats in parliament. They managed to keep their bastions in the densely populated and seated core provinces of Ontario and Quebec. In addition, the Liberals were able to maintain their dominant position in the four Atlantic provinces. This was enough to make up the strongest group.

But Trudeau will have a hard time. The country is divided. The Liberal Party is the party of Eastern Canada. It has not won a single MP in the Alberta oil province or Saskatchewan, and only four out of a possible 14 seats in Manitoba. The aversions to Trudeau and the Liberal Party are particularly deep in Alberta. Its climate policy in particular has met with resistance in the province.

Coalitions have no tradition in Canada

Andrew Scheer, who contested his first election campaign as party leader of the Conservatives, was on the verge of great success. According to political observers, however, with his permanent fight against Trudeau's climate policy, he has gambled away credit, especially among young people and in metropolitan areas. Scheer brushed aside any doubts that he was the right man to lead the Conservatives. He sees the fact that the conservatives will emerge stronger from the election and are even ahead in terms of the proportion of votes as a hopeful sign for the future. “This is the first step. We are the government on hold, ”said Scheer.

Canada is likely to be led by a liberal minority government, as coalitions have no tradition in this country. In purely mathematical terms, he could enter into a coalition with Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party (NDP), which is oriented towards social democracy, but this is not expected in Ottawa. Instead, Trudeau will try to win over the NDP for his government program, possibly including the three Green MPs who have made it into parliament. Even the Bloc Quebecois, which only competes in Quebec and emerged stronger from the election, could support a Trudeau government in social and environmental policy.

Trudeau will have to work hard to regain confidence. Maybe history repeats itself. Justin Trudeau's father, Pierre Trudeau, had won a huge absolute majority in parliament in 1968 on the wave of "Trudeaumanie". Four years later he was only able to keep himself in office with a head start of two seats over the Conservatives and formed a minority government tolerated by the NDP.

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